Breast Cancer
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Researchers have developed a model for predicting the risk of invasive breast cancer (the most serious form) over the next five years for women aged 35-84. The model, known as the Gail Model, was developed by Dr. Mitchell Gail at the National Cancer Institute. The model first determines a baseline risk according to age and race alone. Then it calculates to what extent risk increases based on the following factors:

  • Family history of breast cancer
  • Age at first menstrual period
  • Age at the time of first child’s birth
  • Presence or absence of a breast biopsy
  • Results of the biopsy

Here is a risk assessment tool adapted from the Gail Model. It is important to note that these calculations are based on a population of women who may differ from you, and these calculations do not take into account all risk factors for breast cancer (diet, for example). Also, the model has been mainly studied in Caucasian and African American women, so it may not be as accurate for women of other races. The results, therefore, may or may not accurately reflect your personal circumstances. Discuss your results with your doctor, especially if you have certain risk factors (eg, having had radiation treatment, being a carrier for specific gene mutations that increase breast cancer risk, etc.).

The usefulness of this tool is its ability to give you a rough idea of your short-term risk of breast cancer so you may take appropriate action.

This tool should not be used if you have already been diagnosed with breast cancer, ductal carcinoma in situ, or lobular carcinoma in situ. If you have been diagnosed, work with your doctor to develop the best treatment plan for you.
Please answer the following questions:
1. How old are you?   
2. Which of the following best describes your race?
3. How old were you when you had your first menstrual period?
4. How many times have you had a biopsy (tissue sample) taken from your breast?
5. Did at least one biopsy show "atypical hyperplasia"?
6. How old were you when you gave birth to your first live child?
7. How many of your first-degree relatives (mother, sisters, or daughters) have ever been diagnosed with breast cancer?

EBSCO Information Services's proprietary interactive calculators provide general results based on input provided by the user that is calculated against measurements or formulas considered standard by various government agencies, including the USDA, CDC, and FDA. The inputted information consists only of single values (e.g., anthropometric data or activity levels) not detailed clinical information, and the results do not indicate or suggest a specific course of action unique to the user.
Sources:

Gail MH, Brinton LA, Byar DP, et al. Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for white females who are being examined annually. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1989 Dec 20; 81(24):1879-1886.

Gail MH, Costantino JP, Bryant J, et al. Weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen treatment for preventing breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Nov 3;91(21):1829-1846.

Gail MH, Costantino JP, Pee D, et. al. Projecting individualized absolute invasive breast cancer risk in African American women. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2007 Dec 5;99(23):1782-1792.

Gail MH, Costantino JP, Pee D, et al. Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Sep 15;91(18):1541-1548.